MOMENT OF DECISION

…Winner to carry day by narrowest of margins

A little over 14 million Ghanaians are voting today

The D-day is here for about 14 million Ghanaians to decide who, among eight men, should become the first employee of Ghana for the period January 7, 2013 to midnight of January 6, 2017. The day is also about deciding the employment status of another eight persons, including three women, who are in the frame for vice president.

Various polls and speculations point to President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) as the front-runners. This also increases the potential for either of their respective running mates, Vice President Paa Kwesi Amissah-Arthur and Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, to become vice president.

Speaking at separate mammoth rallies held on Wednesday in Accra at the Trade Fair Centre and the Efua Sutherland Children’s Park to officially close their respective campaigns, both President Mahama and Nana Akufo-Addo claimed they would win today’s vote “one touch.”

That notwithstanding, various pollsters differ on which of the two – NDC and NPP – will carry the day. Depending on which poll one looks at, either of the candidates can pick up votes within the 42-53 per cent range but predictions generally point to a narrow win.

So far, big wigs of the NDC and NPP, including Dr Tony Aidoo and Yoofi Grant respectively, have parried the predictions of the various polls they found unfavourable to their party.

The pair agrees, however, that the best poll result is the voice of Ghanaians which will be expressed through the thumbs of 14 million voters who will be voting at 26,000 polling stations across the country. Meanwhile, about 90, 000 voters comprising security officers and Electoral Commission (EC) officials already cast their votes on Tuesday.

Money and Christmas

It appears from the various predictions that a second round is not an option for Ghanaians, perhaps in line with voting trends established since the 1992 elections. In both the 1996 and 2004 elections when the NDC and NPP sought re-election while in power, the polls were won in one round. On the other hand, polls were won in the second round in 2000 and 2008 when the NDC and NPP had respectively served two four-year terms and were due to exit in 2001 and 2009.

The prospect of a one-round voting process would ostensibly excite a lot of people because many a Ghanaian prays for a one-off race. First, the nation’s kitty is saved from the extra expenditure on printing more electoral materials, paying allowances to electoral officers, catering for security agencies, and so on.

For Christians, getting this electioneering process done with at the weekend also means lesser prayer burden, allowing them to focus more on the immediate needs of their families during the Christmas festivities and early January when children are expected back in school.

The contrast is the case for merchants of party paraphernalia and the so-called foot-soldiers, who hate to see their quadrennial harvest season come to an end. A first round victory means their money-making machines will grind to a halt like a rotating ceiling fan truncated by a power cut via the unsolicited courtesy of the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG).

Similarly, it is not an exciting forecast for the likes of Mr Hassan Ayariga of the People’s National Convention (PNC), Dr Michael Abu Sakara Foster, the Convention People’s Party (CPP), Dr Papa Kwesi Nduom, Progressive People’s Party (PPP), Dr Henry Lartey of the Great Consolidate Popular Party (GCPP), Mr Akwasi Addae, the United Front Party (UFP), and Jacob Osei Yeboah, the sole Independent Candidate.

Ghanaian pollster and Managing Editor of the Daily Dispatch newspaper, Mr Ben Ephson, has predicted a collective 3.1 per cent of the votes for all the six other candidates, distributing the remaining 96.9 per cent between the NDC (52.2%) and NPP (44.7%).

Similarly, RESTATS International PLC, a Nigerian based multinational which deals in socio-political research, has said its opinion polls point to a win for President Mahama. It says the President led in its poll by 53.7% and was followed by Nana Akuffo-Addo with 38.2%.

On the other hand, DaMina Advisors, which describes itself as “a preeminent independent global frontier markets risk consulting and advisory firm,” has forecast that the six candidates of the minor parties are most likely to poll a collective 2 per cent. And unlike Mr Ephson, DaMina Advisors puts the NPP ahead, saying it is likely to win about 52 per cent, leaving about 46 per cent for the NDC.

According to DaMina, the NPP’s chances appear heavily hinged on the “US-style free high school education system – the central plank of the bourgeois party’s surprising populist platform.”

In contrast, “The ruling center-left NDC despite the advantages of incumbency, and a strong media campaign in recent weeks is plagued by strong internal centrifugal disagreements between party and government elites and the charismatic party founder, former President Jerry John Rawlings.”

DaMina empahsises that “These dis-uniting tendencies have dented President John Mahama’s ability to maximize his incumbency advantages and cast a shadow over Mahama’s otherwise savvy media campaign.”

DaMina is not alone. A US-based Professor of Statistics, Prof Adu Bonna, also predicts that it is more possible for Nana Akufo-Addo to secure a first round victory than President Mahama.  

According to a report of the pro-NPP New Statesman newspaper, Prof Bonna, using statistical modeling, has predicted that "currently, given what we know from the past, Nana Akufo-Addo of NPP may win between 45.56% and 54.56% of the total votes, whereas President John Mahama of the NDC may win between 42.64% and 48.82% of the votes."

Overwhelmingly, all the predictions that have come in so far do not point to a winner emerging outside of the two candidates. But an apparent response to the predictions was contained in a text message which Dr Nduom sent to Kojo Oppong-Nkrumah of Accra-based Joy FM. The content of the message, as read by the morning show host to audience on Wednesday morning, indicated that Dr Nduom expected the contest to go into a second round between himself and another candidate whom he did not name.

Peace campaigners say whatever the outcome, there is one expectation of Ghana; that there will be another success at the polls, bolstering the nation’s pride and pedigree as the hub of peace, tranquillity and stability on the West-African sub-regional front, if not on the whole African continent.